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To be sure, it’s hardly news that scoring points results in winning games—the key insight is that, as Graham Mac Aree put it on the website Fan Graphs, it is “relatively easy to predict a team’s win-loss record using a simple formula,” a formula that was invented a man named Bill James in the 1970s.The formula resembled the classic Pythagorean Theorem that James called it the Pythagorean Expectation: what it expressed was that the ratio of a team’s past runs scored to runs allowed is a better predictor of future success (i.e., future wins and losses) than that team’s past ratio of wins to losses.What the World Cup understands, is that just winning games isn’t necessarily a marker of a team’s quality, or value: what also matters is how many goals a team allows, and scores.Now, John Cassidy appears to think that this concept is entirely foreign to Americans, and maybe he’s right—except for any of the Americans who happen to have seen the movie Moneyball, which not only grossed over million dollars in the United States and was nominated for six Oscars but also starred Brad Pitt. ” was the film’s tagline, and in the speech that is the centerpiece of the movie, the character Peter Brand (played by Jonah Hill, another fairly well-known actor) says to his boss—general manager of the Oakland A’s Billy Beane (played by Pitt)—that “Your goal … And in order to buy wins, you need to buy runs.” And while Moneyball, the film, was released just a few years ago, the ideas that fuel it have been around since the 1970s.” But there’s at least two questionable ideas packed into this sentence: one is that a team that has lost—a “loser”—is devoid of athletic ability, or what we might call value, and secondly that “losers” are un-American, or anyway that cheering for them is.
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